Citi starts AstraZeneca at 'buy', takes 'neutral' stance on GSK

Analysts at Citi initiated coverage of AstraZeneca and GSK on Tuesday, taking a bullish stance on the former but a more cautious view on the latter.

Citi started AstraZeneca with a 'buy' rating and a 170p target price, arguing that the drugmaker was set to deliver the fastest mid‑term sales and earnings growth in European pharma.

Citi said AZN was on track to exceed its 2030 revenue goal of $80bn, forecasting around $82bn, supported by strong in‑market brands and a series of new launches across its core franchises.

The bank highlighted AZN's research and development pipeline as the strongest in the sector, with risk‑adjusted peak sales equivalent to 86% of FY24 revenues, comfortably outweighing the loss of exclusivity expected later in the decade.

Citi also pointed to a heavy catalyst year in 2026, including multiple Phase III readouts representing more than $30bn in potential peak sales, and the launch of baxdrostat, which it sees as a roughly $6bn opportunity in resistant and uncontrolled hypertension.

By contrast, Citi initiated GSK with a 'neutral' rating and a 1,900p target price, acknowledging improvements in growth, margins, balance sheet and pipeline in recent years, but noting that the medium‑term outlook still remained challenging.

Citi expects GSK's earnings to stagnate between 2027 and 2030, citing the limited ability of its pipeline to offset sizeable losses of exclusivity, particularly in its £7bn HIV franchise.

It said upcoming launches such as Blenrep and Exdensur, along with Phase III data for camlipixant and bepivirosen, were seen as insufficient to drive a meaningful re‑rating. Citi also noted continued weakness in vaccines, with US momentum for Shingrix and Arexvy having stalled.

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com